Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Boom Bust of Markets


Saving is a good habit. Why we save when actually we can consume it immediately? Why we so stupid to save $50 when we earn $100 and at the same time other who earns same amount consumes all $100 he earns? The worst case is the one who earns $100 but consumes $1000! It seems ridiculous but in reality, it happens in real estate market.

When we buy a house, we are allowed to take out a small portion, such as 10% or even less to buy the house. While it is good for housing developer and all related parties such as broker, financial institution...etc, it is pity for us as a consumer of this real estate business. People may argue that buying house is for "investment" purpose because "price of real estate is always going up" and at the same time could generate a positive cash flow. This is true when a mortgage loan rate is at the all-time low in the history, cash is piling up after a Tech Bubble in 1999/2000 because everyone with money seeking a haven to park their money, easy credit could be obtained by a consumer in term to boost up a consumer market, a housing bubble is created because of these factors. What people forget is "A boom is just capitalism's way of setting up the next bust."

People need to remember that markets do not punish the greedy nor do they necessarily reward the virtuous and frugal saver. Markets are amoral. The outcome is determined by "Good decisions" and "Bad decisions". While timing is important -- when you get in and when you get out, finding a good business and what the price you are paying for determines your outcome.


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