Showing posts with label The Death of Equities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Death of Equities. Show all posts

Sunday, February 19, 2006

Is Mona Lisa painting a good investment?

Hoffman, 44, is a new breed of investor in the $5 trillion art market. From a townhouse near Hyde Park in London, he manages an investment fund that buys and sells paintings rather than stocks or bonds. Since 2004, a dozen or so similar funds have tried to lure investors as the price of art has soared. So far, Hoffman's is the only one that's raised enough money to start investing.

From Buffett's Early Letters to Partners:
"Since the whole subject of compounding has such a crass ring to it, I will attempt to introduce a little class into this discussion by turning to the art world. Francis I of France paid 4,000 ecus in 1540 for Leonardo de Vinci's Mona Lisa. On the off chance that a few of you have not kept track of the fluctuations of the ecu, 4,000 converted out to about $20,000.

If Francis had kept his feet on the ground and he (and his trustees) had been able to find a 6% after-tax investment, the estate now would be worth something over $1,000,000,000,000,000.00. That's $1 quadrillion or over 3,000 times the present national debt, all from 6% I trust this will end all discussion in our household about any purchase of paintings qualifying as an investment.

However, as I pointed out last year, there are other morals to be drawn here. One is the wisdom of living a long time. The other impressive factor is the swing produced by relatively small changes in the rate of compound."

As mentioned earlier in the previous post, Business Week announced “The Death Of Equities” in its August 1979 publication. At that time, people would rather invest their money in money markets, fast-food franchises or rare stamps and paintings. Stocks, apparently, were history.

Although a rare painting such as Mona Lisa by Leonardo de Vinci undeniable is a wonderful painting that ever created and should become a world heritage, it still is not a good investment if you look at the businessman point of view. This kind of rare painting does not create positive cash flow to the businessman. People might argue that this painting is found only one in the world and its price will eventually go up. This mentality is no less differ from the one who promotes real estate investment where they always proclaim “Location is the rarity and no substitute for it.” True, New York exists only one place in the world and its location could not be replaced by any other cities. But people tend to forget maintenance works and its related expenses such as insurance, maintenance charges and storage fee. To keep the painting in well manner, lots of effort need to place on it. The painting might priced at $ 100 millions during SOTHEBYS bidding session and the price seems enormous. But, as mentioned by Warren Buffett, if you invest 4,000 ecus ($ 20,000) as what Francis I of France did in 1540 and the investment brought you 6% after-tax annual return, the investment you made would worth $ 1 quadrillion ( $ 1,000,000,000,000,000). How many times 1 quadrillion is for 100 million? That is 10 million times!! (With $ 1 quadrillion, you can distribute evenly to every residents of the United States of America roughly $ 3.3 million!! That’s the state where everyone in USA becomes millionaire!!).

By knowing this fact, will you still consider a rare painting, stamp is a good investment?

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Dow 36000, Oil $300, Gold $3000…..


There are too many con men out of field waiting for the innocent yet naïve people, to suck out their hard-earned money. No matter it is in the stock market, real estate, commodities market and so forth.

History always tells us something. People who deny history would eventually lose out all. In 1999, when the euphoria of the stock came to the climax, two men, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett wrote a book titled “Dow 36000”. They predicted that Dow Jones Industrial Index will reach at 36000 anytime soon and latest in year 2005. If you think this two gentlemen are an ordinary man, you are totally wrong. Glassman, an investing columnist for the Washington Post, and Hassett, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who used to be an economist at the Federal Reserve. Because of their background and title, many people fall into the prey that “they are intelligent people, what they say makes sense”. So, they pour their money into the stock market when the market was at its peak. The result, they lost US$8 trillion (YES! It’s US$8,000,000,000,000 !!!) With this amount, you can buy 3,200 Petronas Twin Tower in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. (used to be the world’s tallest building in the world)

Stepping into the beginning of 21st century, similar phenomenon will appear. From time to time, someone will come out and shout to you:” Oil will reach to $300 per barrel!”, “Gold will hit $3000 per ounce!”. When the euphoria shift to commodities market, you will notice that some magazines will announce “The Death of Equities” and someone will author the book titled “Dows 360”. When this moment arrives, grab as many as you can from the stock market. Of course, choose only “good” stock.

What is a bubble? You won't know about it until it's already happened...and then it's too late,,,