Showing posts with label General Motor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label General Motor. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Limitations of Financial Reporting



The excerpts from "Sense and Nonsense in Corporate Finance" by Louis Lowenstein, professor emeritus of law at Columbia University:

The freedom to mark assets to market brings to mind the remark by Mark Twain that "a mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top." Twain could as well have been speaking of land appraisals of all types.

In the best of worlds, financial statements would produce numbers that are truly comparable, both across companies and for the same company across time. Did General Motors' earnings increase from 1985 to 1989? According to the company, they did, rising slightly, even though GM sold only 7.9 million cars and trucks in 1989 com­pared to 9.3 million in 1985. There were a number of reasons, in­cluding a turnaround in GM's European operations, but an important reason was that in the interim, the company had rearranged some of the estimates and assumptions on which its financial statements were based. In addition to the already mentioned 1987 change in the esti­mated life of its auto plants, in 1986 the company raised the ex­pected rate of return on its pension funds, which increased that year's net profit by $195 million. By 1989 the annual report no longer contained sufficiently detailed information from which to cal­culate precisely the continuing effects of these and other revisions. One estimate is that, in all, they added over $1 billion of after-tax earnings for 1989. Without that $1 billion, there would have been no increase in earnings since 1985. Yes, GM was able to find that $1 billion without breaking any of the rules. The rules are very flexible.



Do words and numbers mean only what management says they mean, or is there some consistency? It's a problem of credibility in the marketplace, but it also threatens to dis­tort management's own analysis and the internal discipline. In other words, numbers that are no longer comparable from year to year or company to company are a problem not just for investors trying to make portfolio decisions but for creditors and for management itself.


When I first became involved in the supermarket industry in the 1960s, it was commonplace for the smaller public companies in the industry-typically those that were growing rapidly but had weak balance sheets-not to buy anything larger than a cash register if it meant putting debt on the balance sheet. Instead of borrowing money to build and own, say, a store, these companies would lease the finished store from the developer or pursuant to a so-called finan­cial lease from a lender, such as an insurance company. These lease financings were always more expensive than borrowing the money to own the store outright, but neither the companies nor the financial community seemed to care, so long as the company could keep the obligation off the face of the balance sheet, disclosing it only in the footnotes. This is the kind of seemingly pointless paper shuffling that economists find incredible. But that was how the world was. It's easy to say that this was foolishness, but it was conventional foolishness.

In the 1970s the FASB adopted an accounting standard that suc­ceeded in pushing a large part of this off-balance-sheet financing back onto the balance sheet, but it did not succeed entirely. Many compa­nies still arranged their leases to avoid capitalizing them. They were even willing to give away renewal options and other significant eco­nomic values to do so. To paraphrase Kurt Vonnegut, these companies had adopted the philosophy that you are what you pretend to be.


Click here to view more...

Saturday, March 03, 2007

Chairman's Letter 2006 1

"Size seems to make many organizations slow-thinking, resistant to change and smug. In Churchill’s words: “We shape our buildings, and afterwards our buildings shape us.” Here’s a telling fact: Of the ten non-oil companies having the largest market capitalization in 1965 – titans such as General Motors, Sears, DuPont and Eastman Kodak – only one made the 2006 list." -- Warren Buffet, Chairman's Letter 2006

Friday, March 24, 2006

Blue Chips or Potato Chips?

Often, when we invest in equities, people told to invest in Blue Chips for the sake of stability. The Blue Chips normally stand for the companies who are the market leader in their industry. For example, General Motor (GM) in car industry, Dell in computer, Microsoft in software industry, Wal-Mart in retailing and so forth. Are the Blue Chips really a good investment? Why not we examine some to get some ideas?

Google, the world top leading search engine as per 23rd March 2006 has market capitalization of $101.04 billion ($341.89/share). Its Price Earnings (PE) stands at 68.09 with Earnings Per Share (EPS) at $5.02. No dividend paid out so far.

What does it mean? With PE of 68.09, it means when you invest in Google at the current price, you need to wait for 68.09 years to get back all the dollars you invested. The inflationary factor not calculated on this matter. Say, you invest a share of Google with $341.89 in 2006, you need to wait until 2074 to get back $341.89. Please note the value of $341.89 in 2074 is TOTALLY DIFFERENCE with the value in 2006. Of course your invest return period could be shorten if there are some positive progress. For example, for the coming years, Google earns spectacular earnings years after years which mean its EPS more than $5.02. It might be $10, $30, $75 or even $300! Who knows? One things for sure is high growth normally will not long last. It could grew at the rate of 20%, 40%, 80% or even 200% per year. But, to continue such high growth rate for 10 years, 20 years or 50 years, there is only one route: OUT OF THE PLANET EARTH.

Baidu, Chinese top search engine saw its price drop since its 1st day closing price at $122.54. As per 23rd March 2006, its price stands at $50.60. Is it a bargain since its price drops more than half of its peak? To answer the question, let’s look at its fundamentals. Its PE is 273.51 with EPS $0.19. No Dividend paid out before. Even tough its price drops more than half from its peak, its PE seems at the sky rocket end with only tiny earnings. Is it a good investment choice? Ask to the RIGHT candidate – RATIONALITY.

VA Linux, once a darling star of the dot com mania who is tagged as “Next Microsoft” peaked at $320. The price quoted in 23rd March 2006? $3.65. The lost of almost 99% of its value. Enhancing shareholders value? Yes, it is but with reverse direction. At 3.65, its PE stands at 32.88 and EPS of $0.11. No dividend ever paid out.

Wal-Mart Stores listed in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) since 1970 is the world top retailer. It outpaces its rival such as French Carrefour, UK based Tesco and German Metro. Its price on 23rd March 2006 was $48.54. Its PE stands at 18.10 and EPS at $2.68. Its dividend paid out translates to 1.40% yield.

How about a legendary “Oracle of Omaha”, Warren Buffett’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.? Its price as in 23rd March 2006 was $90,000. Yes, $90,000 per share! Its fundamental? PE at 16.25 and EPS of $5,538.47! There is no dividend paid out since its listing. (Note: the price quoted here is Class A share. There are 2 classes of Berkshire’s share: Class A and Class B where the price of latter is 1/30 of the former.)
Though the examples, I believe RATIONAL investment judgment could be made. After all, what we need for our investment portfolio is the REAL blue chips which are always there but not the potato chips which its destiny to be eaten up.

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,