Showing posts with label Louis Lowenstein. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Louis Lowenstein. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Limitations of Financial Reporting



The excerpts from "Sense and Nonsense in Corporate Finance" by Louis Lowenstein, professor emeritus of law at Columbia University:

The freedom to mark assets to market brings to mind the remark by Mark Twain that "a mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top." Twain could as well have been speaking of land appraisals of all types.

In the best of worlds, financial statements would produce numbers that are truly comparable, both across companies and for the same company across time. Did General Motors' earnings increase from 1985 to 1989? According to the company, they did, rising slightly, even though GM sold only 7.9 million cars and trucks in 1989 com­pared to 9.3 million in 1985. There were a number of reasons, in­cluding a turnaround in GM's European operations, but an important reason was that in the interim, the company had rearranged some of the estimates and assumptions on which its financial statements were based. In addition to the already mentioned 1987 change in the esti­mated life of its auto plants, in 1986 the company raised the ex­pected rate of return on its pension funds, which increased that year's net profit by $195 million. By 1989 the annual report no longer contained sufficiently detailed information from which to cal­culate precisely the continuing effects of these and other revisions. One estimate is that, in all, they added over $1 billion of after-tax earnings for 1989. Without that $1 billion, there would have been no increase in earnings since 1985. Yes, GM was able to find that $1 billion without breaking any of the rules. The rules are very flexible.



Do words and numbers mean only what management says they mean, or is there some consistency? It's a problem of credibility in the marketplace, but it also threatens to dis­tort management's own analysis and the internal discipline. In other words, numbers that are no longer comparable from year to year or company to company are a problem not just for investors trying to make portfolio decisions but for creditors and for management itself.


When I first became involved in the supermarket industry in the 1960s, it was commonplace for the smaller public companies in the industry-typically those that were growing rapidly but had weak balance sheets-not to buy anything larger than a cash register if it meant putting debt on the balance sheet. Instead of borrowing money to build and own, say, a store, these companies would lease the finished store from the developer or pursuant to a so-called finan­cial lease from a lender, such as an insurance company. These lease financings were always more expensive than borrowing the money to own the store outright, but neither the companies nor the financial community seemed to care, so long as the company could keep the obligation off the face of the balance sheet, disclosing it only in the footnotes. This is the kind of seemingly pointless paper shuffling that economists find incredible. But that was how the world was. It's easy to say that this was foolishness, but it was conventional foolishness.

In the 1970s the FASB adopted an accounting standard that suc­ceeded in pushing a large part of this off-balance-sheet financing back onto the balance sheet, but it did not succeed entirely. Many compa­nies still arranged their leases to avoid capitalizing them. They were even willing to give away renewal options and other significant eco­nomic values to do so. To paraphrase Kurt Vonnegut, these companies had adopted the philosophy that you are what you pretend to be.


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Saturday, July 15, 2006

Mutual Funds @ Super Highway



Article by Louis Lowenstein about the turnover rate of the mutual funds (unit trust).

Have you ever care about how fast your fund managers changing their portfolio? The answer? 100% and for some even as high as 305% per year!! What is this means? That means holding period of the portfolio is less than a year (100% per year) or less than 4 months (305% per year)!! While purchasing the fund, the promoters always tell you “invest for long term”, at the same time, they are doing the reverse. “Long term” by their definition seems less than a year from their action.

In any business, a period of a year seldom gives you a clear picture of how a company performs. In such a short period, very often the performance of the company is merely a luck. If the company delivers a handsome result this year, you can’t just assume the same result will repeat for next years. For example, in 2004, steel production companies enjoyed a handsome result but the reverse happened in 2005.




The high rate of portfolio turnover by fund managers only indicates their speculative mentality. They try to time the market and most often they are wrong. When the management fee is tied to the size of the fund and their net worth is not tied to the fund they manage, there is no wonder why irresponsible action occurs.

The funds managed by managers with speculative mentality would only deliver a poor result to their fund holders. The result could be as wide as 18% per year over the period of 5 years as compared to value-oriented funds. With compounded effect, if you invest $ 10,000 and the difference is 18% per year, see the difference:

Year Value Fund Speed Fund Difference (%)
0 10,000 10,000 0
5 22,878 10,000 129
10 52,338 10,000 423
20 273,930 10,000 2,639
30 1,433,706 10,000 14,237

Will you invest in Speed Fund anymore??