Stocks now sell at levels that should produce long-term returns far superior to bonds. Yet pensions managers, usually encouraged by corporate sponsors they must necessarily please ("whose bread I eat, his song I sing"), are pouring funds in record proportions into bonds.
Many corporate managers, in fact, exhibit a bit of schizophrenia regarding equities. They consider their own stocks to be screamingly attractive. But, concomitantly, they stamp approval on pension policies rejecting purchases of common stocks in general. And the boss, while wearing his acquisition hat, will eagerly bid 150% to 200% of book value for businesses typical of corporate America but, wearing his pension hat, will scorn investment in similar companies at book value. Can his own talents be so unique that he is justified both in paying 200 cents on the dollar for a business if he can get his hands on it, and in rejecting it as an unwise pension investment at 100 cents on the dollar if it must be left to be run by his companions at the Business Roundtable?
A second argument is made that there are just too many question marks about the near future; wouldn't it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose: "Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved," etc. Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is never clear; you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.
Managers currently opting for lower equity ratios either have a highly negative opinion of future American business results or expect to be nimble enough to dance back into stocks at even lower levels. There may well be some period in the near future when financial markets are demoralized and much better buys are available in equities; that possibility exists at all times. But you can be sure that at such a time the future will seem neither predictable nor pleasant. Those now awaiting a "better time" for equity investing are highly likely to maintain that posture until well into the next bull market.
Read more, click here....
Comment: Isn't it a similar scenario after 40 years now? "A person who does not learn from the history does not has his story."
Monday, November 10, 2008
Friday, November 07, 2008
Top Brands of Beer in the World
雪花啤酒两大股东是国际啤酒集团SABMiller(SAB.L: 行情)与中国华润创业(0291.HK: 行情)，其发展势头迅猛，因中国已取代美国成为全球最大啤酒市场。
Plato公布的前10大啤酒品牌分别为：Bud Light、雪花、百威、英博(INTB.BR: 行情)旗下巴西品牌Skol、ModeloGMODELOC.M旗下的科罗娜、喜力(HEIN.AS: 行情)、英博旗下另一巴西品牌Brahma、Coors Light(TAP.N: 行情)、SABMiller旗下的米勒淡啤和中国的青岛啤酒(0168.HK: 行情)。
该研究机构称，世界消费量排名前五的啤酒市场依次为中国、美国、俄罗斯、巴西和德国。
研究报告同时预期2008年全球啤酒消费量增长不到3%。2007年增速则为5.6%。
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Rebound Ranking for Stock Markets Around the World
As at 6th November 2008:
全球反弹榜
股市 近期低点 最新收盘 反弹幅度
俄罗斯 549.06点 773.37点 40.85%
中国香港 10676.29点 14840.16点 39.00%
巴西 29400点 40254.8点 36.92%
日本 6994.90点 9521.24点 36.12%
印度 7697.39点 10343.01点 34.37%
韩国 892.16点 1181.50点 32.43%
奥地利 1675.89点 2210点 31.87%
德国 4014.60点 5278.04点 31.47%
阿根廷 858.55点 1123.11点 30.81%
墨西哥 16480.01点 21535.27点 30.68%
瑞典 369.72点 477.88点 29.25%
新加坡 1473.77点 1876.60点 27.33%
印尼 1089.34点 1381.98点 26.86%
英国 3665.21点 4639.5点 26.58%
法国 2959.29点 3691.09点 24.73%
西班牙 836.82点 1041.89点 24.51%
美国道琼斯 7773.71点 9625.28点 23.81%
意大利 14521.00点 17750点 22.23%
泰国 383.63点 467.76点 21.93%
台湾地区 4110.09点 4978.26点 21.12%
芬兰 760.06点 916.78点 20.62%
越南 313.63点 377.83点 20.47%
瑞士 5265.86点 6399.98点 20.40%
葡萄牙 1907.82点 2290.17点 20.04%
美国纳斯达克 1493.00点 1780.12点 19.23%
菲律宾 1684.75点 2006.21点 19.09%
加拿大 8537.34点 10116.58点 18.50%
埃及 405.533点 479.7点 18.29%
澳大利亚 3693.90点 4336.6点 17.40%
马来西亚 801.27点 914.71点 14.16%
新西兰 2687.100点 2886.11点 7.41%
上海综指 1664.92点 1760.61点 5.74%
深圳成指 5577.23点 5865.78点 5.17%
冰岛 640.04点 644.18点 0.65%
Except for Iceland where really in the mess, the least rebound in term of percentage include:
1) Australia and New Zealand: both of them have their own trouble: their currency depreciation against USD in the past few weeks about 30%.
2) China and Malaysia: Their currency rate is pegged to the basket of currencies and not freely traded outside domestic market, high foreign reserve.
Notes to be taken:
1) While HK rebound 39%, Shanghai and ShenZhen rebound about 5% only. Is HK overvalued or Shanghai and ShenZhen undervalued?
2) While BRI (Brazil, Russia and India) rebound more than 30%, C (China) rebound about 5% only. Same question applies: do BRI overvalued or C undervalued?
What's the indication do you get from the information?
Most often, success contains the seed of failure and vice versa.....
全球反弹榜
股市 近期低点 最新收盘 反弹幅度
俄罗斯 549.06点 773.37点 40.85%
中国香港 10676.29点 14840.16点 39.00%
巴西 29400点 40254.8点 36.92%
日本 6994.90点 9521.24点 36.12%
印度 7697.39点 10343.01点 34.37%
韩国 892.16点 1181.50点 32.43%
奥地利 1675.89点 2210点 31.87%
德国 4014.60点 5278.04点 31.47%
阿根廷 858.55点 1123.11点 30.81%
墨西哥 16480.01点 21535.27点 30.68%
瑞典 369.72点 477.88点 29.25%
新加坡 1473.77点 1876.60点 27.33%
印尼 1089.34点 1381.98点 26.86%
英国 3665.21点 4639.5点 26.58%
法国 2959.29点 3691.09点 24.73%
西班牙 836.82点 1041.89点 24.51%
美国道琼斯 7773.71点 9625.28点 23.81%
意大利 14521.00点 17750点 22.23%
泰国 383.63点 467.76点 21.93%
台湾地区 4110.09点 4978.26点 21.12%
芬兰 760.06点 916.78点 20.62%
越南 313.63点 377.83点 20.47%
瑞士 5265.86点 6399.98点 20.40%
葡萄牙 1907.82点 2290.17点 20.04%
美国纳斯达克 1493.00点 1780.12点 19.23%
菲律宾 1684.75点 2006.21点 19.09%
加拿大 8537.34点 10116.58点 18.50%
埃及 405.533点 479.7点 18.29%
澳大利亚 3693.90点 4336.6点 17.40%
马来西亚 801.27点 914.71点 14.16%
新西兰 2687.100点 2886.11点 7.41%
上海综指 1664.92点 1760.61点 5.74%
深圳成指 5577.23点 5865.78点 5.17%
冰岛 640.04点 644.18点 0.65%
Except for Iceland where really in the mess, the least rebound in term of percentage include:
1) Australia and New Zealand: both of them have their own trouble: their currency depreciation against USD in the past few weeks about 30%.
2) China and Malaysia: Their currency rate is pegged to the basket of currencies and not freely traded outside domestic market, high foreign reserve.
Notes to be taken:
1) While HK rebound 39%, Shanghai and ShenZhen rebound about 5% only. Is HK overvalued or Shanghai and ShenZhen undervalued?
2) While BRI (Brazil, Russia and India) rebound more than 30%, C (China) rebound about 5% only. Same question applies: do BRI overvalued or C undervalued?
What's the indication do you get from the information?
Most often, success contains the seed of failure and vice versa.....
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
John Bogle comment on US markets on Nov 4th 2008
The hard-charging, 79-year-old founder of the nation's second-largest largest mutual fund company said he expected the earnings of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX to grow at a rate of about 7 percent annually over the next decade.
That should pave the way for returns on U.S. stocks of around 10 percent, according to his calculations that combine a projected earnings growth rate with a three percent dividend yield generated by stocks in the S&P-500 Index.
"The value of the U.S. stock market was $18 trillion a year ago. And now it's about $9.5 trillion or let's call it $10 trillion with today's rally. Anyone who believes that American business is worth $8 trillion less than it was a year ago I think is a fool," he told Reuters in a telephone interview.
That should pave the way for returns on U.S. stocks of around 10 percent, according to his calculations that combine a projected earnings growth rate with a three percent dividend yield generated by stocks in the S&P-500 Index.
"The value of the U.S. stock market was $18 trillion a year ago. And now it's about $9.5 trillion or let's call it $10 trillion with today's rally. Anyone who believes that American business is worth $8 trillion less than it was a year ago I think is a fool," he told Reuters in a telephone interview.
"So there was some water in the system, some hot air in the system, and we blew it out, but I think we have overblown it," he said.
Bogle left the Vanguard helm after a 1996 heart transplant, and now often castigates the mutual fund industry as a marketing vehicle run not so much by investment professionals on behalf of investors as by short-term minded entrepreneurs.
"Institutional money managers, including the managers at mutual funds, have a lot to answer for," he said.
"If they were professional security analysts, where were they when they looked at the balance sheets of those banks?" he said in reference to banks that took huge write-downs for their exposure to losses in subprime mortgages that snowballed into the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.
"They joined the speculative frenzy, turning over stocks 100 percent a year. It has nothing to do with investing. It's a great big marketing business," he said.
"Institutional money managers, including the managers at mutual funds, have a lot to answer for," he said.
"If they were professional security analysts, where were they when they looked at the balance sheets of those banks?" he said in reference to banks that took huge write-downs for their exposure to losses in subprime mortgages that snowballed into the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.
"They joined the speculative frenzy, turning over stocks 100 percent a year. It has nothing to do with investing. It's a great big marketing business," he said.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Face off.........
来自摩根大通的预期显示,在未来的三年,蒙牛乳业的业绩将遭遇滑铁卢,预计2008年净利润较上年下降88%至1.216亿元,2009年和2010年料净亏损2.669亿元和2.226亿元。
而来自内蒙古自治区政府的数据显示,乳业因三聚氰胺遭受的损失惨重。据一份来自内蒙古的数据显示,伊利、蒙牛下架产品价值已达64亿元,预计未来还将损失36亿元人民币,企业订单减少八成,日收奶量不足原来的五分之一。
“蒙牛的资金的确很紧张,我们已经从预备费中各拿出5000万元分别对蒙牛和伊利进行救助,此外还准备免除两家企业未来四个月的增值税。”内蒙古政府一位人士对记者说。
在产品下架及召回让蒙牛损失了近50亿元之外,在9月23日,蒙牛乳业在港交所复牌,当日即暴跌60.25%,蒙牛总裁牛根生等高管持股市值单日缩水就达49.4亿港元,而此后,由于国际金融危机,蒙牛乳业的股价同样未能企稳。
而 此时,国际投行从之前的一致唱多到现在开始一致唱空。如美林预计,蒙牛2008年亏损1800万元,目标价由15港元降至9.09港元;摩根大通甚至按照 净资产估值给出了3.8港元的目标价。10月31日,蒙牛乳业股价仍然延续了跌势,已经跌到7.5港元左右。而蒙牛乳业年内的最高价曾达到34港元。
在一位不愿具名的分析师看来,继续唱空蒙牛,也许正是投行们为了配合逢低收购蒙牛股票而演出的大戏。“在二级市场暴跌的股票虽然给投资者带来了巨大损失,但也给虎视眈眈的外资以绝好的机会。中国上空有两只秃鹫,一个是产业资本,一个是金融资本,现在都飞到内蒙古了。”
而在此时,瑞银 的动作颇为引人注目。蒙牛最大的机构股东瑞银日前发表研究报告称,维持对蒙牛的卖出评级,同时决定将蒙牛目标价由11.55港元下调至7.44港元。报告 进一步称,决定依次分别下调蒙牛乳业2008～2010年的每股盈利至0.33元、0.33元和0.47元。
然而,与其他投行纷纷坚持蒙牛乳业股票不同,瑞银却一面唱空一面做多。8月22日,瑞银持股比例为7.99%,在蒙牛停牌前后曾减持至7.71%,但在持续对蒙牛唱空之后,到9月25日,瑞银却突然买入,持股比例达到12.23%。
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