“The price of petrol increase again!” That’s the headline of the news today. While the hike would not be the last one, be prepared for the more economic driven environment.
People are pampered for too long. They expect the government would protect their interest and keep the price lower. This might happen in the utopian world but for sure it would not occur in the reality. Once a while, government might take some measures to control the price of certain products, such as sugar, petrol, poultry products…etc. Where the government is based on the votes from the people, they have much incentives to do so. For the sake of “Protecting People Interest”, the price of these products keep lower than the Real market price. The tricks? Government might use money from the taxpayers to subsidy the difference of the price or request the supplier to sell the products below the market price by implementing the controlled price regime. This might work well for short term, but it could not be last long. The example? Look at the case where the ex-communism blog countries such as Soviet Union, Poland, Hungary and so forth where the price of the products were kept ultra low, but there is nothing on the shelves.Capital flows where it is respected. If the pricing of the products or services out of pace of the market, capital will outflow from it. Do you think Asian Financial Crisis in 1997/98 is caused by the speculators such as George Soros? Yes, it is, but as a result, not a cause. The cause of the crisis is because people do not respect capital. With the easy credit, people spend the money like there is no tomorrow. Projects after projects started not for the economic consideration but for the title of “The Biggest”, “The Longest”…etc. With a leader who stressed Form Over Substance, the only outcome is a Massive Wealth Transform from the average Joe on the street to the interested parties connected to the leader. The most pitiful part is the average Joe, though suffered from the mismanagement of their leader, still praising the leader as a “Father of Development”.
Tuesday, February 28, 2006
Monday, February 27, 2006
Is Real Estate a Good Investment? VI
Correction: Years from base date for Japan should be 1980 and not 1985.
From the graph, it showed that house price in Japan soared 100% from 1980 to 1990. After the bubble burst, Japan suffered from a massive economic depression which lasted 15 years until 2005 which we saw there is a sign of economic recovery. Still, house price in Japan does not recover from its peak. In 2005, it signifies the depression of nearly 40%, this means if you bought a house for $ 200,000 in 1990, your house is worth $ 120,000 in 2005. This is a scenario if you bought with hard core cash. How about the one who highly leverage with housing loan? The consequence is more drastic, the real estate that they invested still in a group of “Negative Equity”, meaning that even you sold off the house, you are still in debt and need to repay back the balance to the bank. That’s the impact of leverage, in contrast to the one who always persuade you for the “Power of Leverage”. They are right in one point: Leveraging could shorten your investment return IF the market is booming; when the market burst, you not only lose all your investment but you would be in debt as well.
While in Australia, Britain and US, the average house price since 1995 registered a handsome return of nearly 150%. If you laid the investment since the beginning of 1995 and bought the house which priced $ 100,000, your investment worth almost $ 250,000 in 2005. The return could be higher if you are buying with highly leverage housing loan. While the house price for the past 10 years gave the investor of that time a handsome return, do you think it will do the same for the next 10 years, or it will show the same trend as Japanese backed to 1990? The answer? Only God knows…
“Any indication for you?”
From the graph, it showed that house price in Japan soared 100% from 1980 to 1990. After the bubble burst, Japan suffered from a massive economic depression which lasted 15 years until 2005 which we saw there is a sign of economic recovery. Still, house price in Japan does not recover from its peak. In 2005, it signifies the depression of nearly 40%, this means if you bought a house for $ 200,000 in 1990, your house is worth $ 120,000 in 2005. This is a scenario if you bought with hard core cash. How about the one who highly leverage with housing loan? The consequence is more drastic, the real estate that they invested still in a group of “Negative Equity”, meaning that even you sold off the house, you are still in debt and need to repay back the balance to the bank. That’s the impact of leverage, in contrast to the one who always persuade you for the “Power of Leverage”. They are right in one point: Leveraging could shorten your investment return IF the market is booming; when the market burst, you not only lose all your investment but you would be in debt as well.
While in Australia, Britain and US, the average house price since 1995 registered a handsome return of nearly 150%. If you laid the investment since the beginning of 1995 and bought the house which priced $ 100,000, your investment worth almost $ 250,000 in 2005. The return could be higher if you are buying with highly leverage housing loan. While the house price for the past 10 years gave the investor of that time a handsome return, do you think it will do the same for the next 10 years, or it will show the same trend as Japanese backed to 1990? The answer? Only God knows…
“Any indication for you?”
Labels:
Australian,
Bubble,
God,
Japanese,
Leverage,
property,
real estate
Saturday, February 25, 2006
Is Real Estate a Good Investment? V
There are many reasons that influence the up and down of one product or service, being it equities, commodities, bus fare you pay, lawyer fee…etc. Though, there are so many reasons that could influence the pricing, the 2 most important reasons are Supply and Demand factor and Human Psychology factor.
In every aspect, Supply and Demand factor plays a very important role. It’s a simple thought. Whenever the supply is tight, you need to pay more in order to get the stuffs you need and vice versa. Through this mechanism, it creates equilibrium of the economy.
Human psychology factor is a must consideration whenever we make any investment. People tend to think rational when he is alone but when they are in a group, the reverse could happen. The logic is simple: When you are alone, you could filter out all the rubbish thoughts and think it rationally. While in a group, your personal critical and rational thought would be influence by a group thought. Human is a social animal. We need an assurance from others to validate our existence. If your thought is not within a group of same league, you will be treated as a weird person, you will be facing peer pressure. At this moment, being RIGHT IN FACT is no longer your ultimate consideration, but being RIGHT IN THE GROUP is the only consideration at this point.As shown in the graph, we notice that the house enjoyed a handsome appreciation starting the new millennium. This is more prominent in Britain and Australia. For example, Australian real estate enjoyed a double digit growth from 2001 until 2004, which recorded an appreciation of 15%, 18%, 18% and 18% for the period. What is this means? This means when you bought a house for the price of $ 100,000 from 1st January 2001, your investment will appreciate to $ 188,948 at the end of 2004. That is almost double your investment within 4 years! Is average Joe on the street enjoyed their wage increment same pace as in real estate market during that period? How about the rental of this real estate growth rate? Is the growth rate in tandem with the appreciation? If the answer is no, will you think such high growth rate can be sustain? Remember Supply and Demand factor?
It’s always a better way to seed a “picture” into the reader’s mind in order for them to understand the conceptual theories and so forth. Let me give you an example, when a new 42 inch High Definition (HD) TV launched, its price tag is $ 20,000. With some reasons, the TV’s price tag becomes higher and higher and soon the price reaches at $ 40,000 within 3 months. The underlying reasons for the appreciation could be any. It could be: The FIFA World Cup soccer season is approaching, people want to enjoy a high quality picture of those matches and rushing for the TV, the supplier is lack of stock because of the World Cup fever…etc. Sooner or later, people might find out that is it worth to “invest” $ 40,000 for those luxurious? If their mind changing a direction, they will dump their “investment” in a secondary market and at the same time, it will cause pricing pressure for the new HDTV. At this time, from the price of $ 40,000, the price could drop to $ 30,000, $ 20,000, $ 10,000 or even $ 2,000? What’s the result? Is it always an insider and intelligent investors who make fortune out of the insanity and stupidity of the average Joe on the street. From Tulip mania in 17th century to Dot-com bubble in the beginning of new millennium, history already show that human being always repeat same mistake. It’s not because human is not smart, it’s just because human weakness on “Greed and Fear”. For the next boom and bust, how do you position yourself?
Any indication for you?
In every aspect, Supply and Demand factor plays a very important role. It’s a simple thought. Whenever the supply is tight, you need to pay more in order to get the stuffs you need and vice versa. Through this mechanism, it creates equilibrium of the economy.
Human psychology factor is a must consideration whenever we make any investment. People tend to think rational when he is alone but when they are in a group, the reverse could happen. The logic is simple: When you are alone, you could filter out all the rubbish thoughts and think it rationally. While in a group, your personal critical and rational thought would be influence by a group thought. Human is a social animal. We need an assurance from others to validate our existence. If your thought is not within a group of same league, you will be treated as a weird person, you will be facing peer pressure. At this moment, being RIGHT IN FACT is no longer your ultimate consideration, but being RIGHT IN THE GROUP is the only consideration at this point.As shown in the graph, we notice that the house enjoyed a handsome appreciation starting the new millennium. This is more prominent in Britain and Australia. For example, Australian real estate enjoyed a double digit growth from 2001 until 2004, which recorded an appreciation of 15%, 18%, 18% and 18% for the period. What is this means? This means when you bought a house for the price of $ 100,000 from 1st January 2001, your investment will appreciate to $ 188,948 at the end of 2004. That is almost double your investment within 4 years! Is average Joe on the street enjoyed their wage increment same pace as in real estate market during that period? How about the rental of this real estate growth rate? Is the growth rate in tandem with the appreciation? If the answer is no, will you think such high growth rate can be sustain? Remember Supply and Demand factor?
It’s always a better way to seed a “picture” into the reader’s mind in order for them to understand the conceptual theories and so forth. Let me give you an example, when a new 42 inch High Definition (HD) TV launched, its price tag is $ 20,000. With some reasons, the TV’s price tag becomes higher and higher and soon the price reaches at $ 40,000 within 3 months. The underlying reasons for the appreciation could be any. It could be: The FIFA World Cup soccer season is approaching, people want to enjoy a high quality picture of those matches and rushing for the TV, the supplier is lack of stock because of the World Cup fever…etc. Sooner or later, people might find out that is it worth to “invest” $ 40,000 for those luxurious? If their mind changing a direction, they will dump their “investment” in a secondary market and at the same time, it will cause pricing pressure for the new HDTV. At this time, from the price of $ 40,000, the price could drop to $ 30,000, $ 20,000, $ 10,000 or even $ 2,000? What’s the result? Is it always an insider and intelligent investors who make fortune out of the insanity and stupidity of the average Joe on the street. From Tulip mania in 17th century to Dot-com bubble in the beginning of new millennium, history already show that human being always repeat same mistake. It’s not because human is not smart, it’s just because human weakness on “Greed and Fear”. For the next boom and bust, how do you position yourself?
Any indication for you?
Friday, February 24, 2006
Antibodies against H5N1 virus in South Korea
Is there a hope for a deadly Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) virus? This might gives you some hope, click here.
Labels:
antibodies,
bird flu,
H5N1,
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza,
HPAI,
South Korea,
virus
Bird Flu Vaccine
A new breakthrough in the development of Avian Influenza (AI) vaccine, click here.
Labels:
AI,
bird flu,
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza,
vaccine
Thursday, February 23, 2006
Space Adventure
In the early 20th century, vast resources had been allocated for the airlines industry. Investors at that time invested their hard-earned money into the airlines companies in the hope that their investment would bear fruits to them. Unfortunately, history already proved to us that the whole industry is a nut as an investment purpose.
It is a human nature of hoping to fly in the sky since the civilization. The airlines gave them a chance to participate in the “once in a life time opportunity” to get a handsome return. That’s the promise they gave to the investors. But, this was empty promise. The investors lost millions dollars on it. This time it could be airlines, next time it could be electronics industry, and the other time it could be fiber optic industry. The theme could be different, but the results always similar – the people who invested their money lost their hard-earned money. While it is good for the development for those industries and for sure it needs money for the advancement of the human society, as an intelligent investor, shouldn’t us think twice before we committed our money for the investment that not only does not bring fortune to us, but making us lose out our hard-earned money. Of course, if you have a mentality of gambler who would be glad to proclaim that you are one of the contributors who develop a no man desert to Las Vegas today, that’s an another story then.
Stepping into new millennium, will there be another theme of investment to suck out all ignorant people money? This is a sure thing and it happens all the times. Will Space Adventure becomes a new theme? Let’s see…
The news of Space Adventure could be found here.
It is a human nature of hoping to fly in the sky since the civilization. The airlines gave them a chance to participate in the “once in a life time opportunity” to get a handsome return. That’s the promise they gave to the investors. But, this was empty promise. The investors lost millions dollars on it. This time it could be airlines, next time it could be electronics industry, and the other time it could be fiber optic industry. The theme could be different, but the results always similar – the people who invested their money lost their hard-earned money. While it is good for the development for those industries and for sure it needs money for the advancement of the human society, as an intelligent investor, shouldn’t us think twice before we committed our money for the investment that not only does not bring fortune to us, but making us lose out our hard-earned money. Of course, if you have a mentality of gambler who would be glad to proclaim that you are one of the contributors who develop a no man desert to Las Vegas today, that’s an another story then.
Stepping into new millennium, will there be another theme of investment to suck out all ignorant people money? This is a sure thing and it happens all the times. Will Space Adventure becomes a new theme? Let’s see…
The news of Space Adventure could be found here.
Wednesday, February 22, 2006
Is Real Estate a Good Investment? IV
In the businessman point of view, the rate of return is crucial to determine whether he wants to make the investment or not. In the equity market, people use Price Earnings (P/E) ratio as a reference for the investment. Take an example, if P/E of stock ABC is 5, this means he needs 5 years to get back his initial investment and this translates 20% annual return rate. While for stock XYZ where the P/E is 20, this means investors of XYZ company need to wait for 20 years to get back his initial investment and this translate to 5% annual return rate. That's the reason a savvy investors always tell you that, whether you make a good investment is not when you sold it, but when you buy it.
As we can see from the graph where a ratio of house prices to rents (P/R), which is equivalent to equity P/E ratio, the ratio was 100 in between 1975 - 2000. But the trend moved to north exponentially after 2000 when the Dot com bubble burst, this trend more prevail in Australia and Britain. Australia registered a ratio around 170, Britain 155 and US 135 in 2004. What is it means? The ratio of 170 means the price of real estate in Australia in 2004 is either 70% higher if compare to the average price for the period of 1975 - 2000 or the rental is 70% lower for the mentioned period. If you deduct all the related expenses for real estate such as management fee, broker fee, insurance charge and so forth, the ratio could be higher.
While people could argue that we could not compare real estate investment with equities because real estate is "REAL", it is not a paper value. True, real estate is "Real" in physical but the illusion of control could harm the judgment of the investors. For every investment decision made, we could not run from the reality of the rate of return, no matter it is in equities, bond, real estate, commodities market...etc.
Any indication for you?
As we can see from the graph where a ratio of house prices to rents (P/R), which is equivalent to equity P/E ratio, the ratio was 100 in between 1975 - 2000. But the trend moved to north exponentially after 2000 when the Dot com bubble burst, this trend more prevail in Australia and Britain. Australia registered a ratio around 170, Britain 155 and US 135 in 2004. What is it means? The ratio of 170 means the price of real estate in Australia in 2004 is either 70% higher if compare to the average price for the period of 1975 - 2000 or the rental is 70% lower for the mentioned period. If you deduct all the related expenses for real estate such as management fee, broker fee, insurance charge and so forth, the ratio could be higher.
While people could argue that we could not compare real estate investment with equities because real estate is "REAL", it is not a paper value. True, real estate is "Real" in physical but the illusion of control could harm the judgment of the investors. For every investment decision made, we could not run from the reality of the rate of return, no matter it is in equities, bond, real estate, commodities market...etc.
Any indication for you?
Labels:
Australian,
Management Fee,
PE ratio,
property,
real estate
Monday, February 20, 2006
Is Real Estate a Good Investment? I
Often we hear somebody proclaim:” Real estate value is always going up. It’s a good investment.”, “Real estate is a vehicle to hedge against inflation.”, “By leveraging others people money (OPM), we can achieve a retirement plan earlier.”, “As long as the rental could generate a positive cash flow, it’s a good investment.”
Let us examine the conventional wisdom one by one:
1) “As long as the rental could generate a positive cash flow, it’s a good investment.”
Case 1: By purchasing a condo priced at $ 200,000 and putting 10% down payment ($ 20,000) with the interest rate at 6.65% per annum for 30 years duration, the monthly installment translates into $ 1,155.54. While the rental collected every month is $ 1,000, this means you have a NEGATIVE cash flow of ($ 155.54). This calculation does not include the monthly management fee of $ 180, insurance charge, municipal assessment fee, broker fee for finding a tenant...etc.
People might argue that after 30 years, the condo is owned by the investor and the tenant is paying partial installment on behalf for the investor. This sounds good superficially for the investor, but when analyze deeply, the case seems reversed in the situation.
Assuming A is an investor and B is a tenant, let see what’s the impact for both persons:
| A | B
Down payment ($) | 20,000 | 0
Monthly installment / Rental ($) | 1,155.54 |1,000
Miscellaneous fees / charges ($) | 350 |0
Cash flow ($) | (505.54) |0
It is clear that B could save $ 20,000 for the down payment and at the same time, he could save roughly $ 6,060 yearly. When multiply for the duration of 30 years, B could save $ 181,800 + $ 20,000 = $ 201,800.
Although this is a simplified case where rental tends to increase, bear in mind the investor also feels the same burden that he needs to bear the hike of interest rate, broker fee, monthly management fee and so forth which in tandem with the current situation. By saving $ 20,000 for the initial year and $ 6,060 yearly, B could place this amount to other investment vehicle which could generate more handsome rewards to him over the years. Or else, if he can use this amount to fulfill his desire like buying HDTV, fancy car, travel around the world plan…etc. (Note: We do not recommend using savings for the unnecessary desires.)
Disclaimer: We do not recommend “Sell”, “Hold” or “Buy” for the investment in the article. Our objective for placing this article is to “Open Mind” for the investor by not becoming prey for the interested parties. Readers should exercise EXTRA care when dealing with their money for the investment.
Sunday, February 19, 2006
Is Mona Lisa painting a good investment?
Hoffman, 44, is a new breed of investor in the $5 trillion art market. From a townhouse near Hyde Park in London, he manages an investment fund that buys and sells paintings rather than stocks or bonds. Since 2004, a dozen or so similar funds have tried to lure investors as the price of art has soared. So far, Hoffman's is the only one that's raised enough money to start investing.
From Buffett's Early Letters to Partners:
"Since the whole subject of compounding has such a crass ring to it, I will attempt to introduce a little class into this discussion by turning to the art world. Francis I of France paid 4,000 ecus in 1540 for Leonardo de Vinci's Mona Lisa. On the off chance that a few of you have not kept track of the fluctuations of the ecu, 4,000 converted out to about $20,000.
If Francis had kept his feet on the ground and he (and his trustees) had been able to find a 6% after-tax investment, the estate now would be worth something over $1,000,000,000,000,000.00. That's $1 quadrillion or over 3,000 times the present national debt, all from 6% I trust this will end all discussion in our household about any purchase of paintings qualifying as an investment.
However, as I pointed out last year, there are other morals to be drawn here. One is the wisdom of living a long time. The other impressive factor is the swing produced by relatively small changes in the rate of compound."
As mentioned earlier in the previous post, Business Week announced “The Death Of Equities” in its August 1979 publication. At that time, people would rather invest their money in money markets, fast-food franchises or rare stamps and paintings. Stocks, apparently, were history.
Although a rare painting such as Mona Lisa by Leonardo de Vinci undeniable is a wonderful painting that ever created and should become a world heritage, it still is not a good investment if you look at the businessman point of view. This kind of rare painting does not create positive cash flow to the businessman. People might argue that this painting is found only one in the world and its price will eventually go up. This mentality is no less differ from the one who promotes real estate investment where they always proclaim “Location is the rarity and no substitute for it.” True, New York exists only one place in the world and its location could not be replaced by any other cities. But people tend to forget maintenance works and its related expenses such as insurance, maintenance charges and storage fee. To keep the painting in well manner, lots of effort need to place on it. The painting might priced at $ 100 millions during SOTHEBYS bidding session and the price seems enormous. But, as mentioned by Warren Buffett, if you invest 4,000 ecus ($ 20,000) as what Francis I of France did in 1540 and the investment brought you 6% after-tax annual return, the investment you made would worth $ 1 quadrillion ( $ 1,000,000,000,000,000). How many times 1 quadrillion is for 100 million? That is 10 million times!! (With $ 1 quadrillion, you can distribute evenly to every residents of the United States of America roughly $ 3.3 million!! That’s the state where everyone in USA becomes millionaire!!).
By knowing this fact, will you still consider a rare painting, stamp is a good investment?
From Buffett's Early Letters to Partners:
"Since the whole subject of compounding has such a crass ring to it, I will attempt to introduce a little class into this discussion by turning to the art world. Francis I of France paid 4,000 ecus in 1540 for Leonardo de Vinci's Mona Lisa. On the off chance that a few of you have not kept track of the fluctuations of the ecu, 4,000 converted out to about $20,000.
If Francis had kept his feet on the ground and he (and his trustees) had been able to find a 6% after-tax investment, the estate now would be worth something over $1,000,000,000,000,000.00. That's $1 quadrillion or over 3,000 times the present national debt, all from 6% I trust this will end all discussion in our household about any purchase of paintings qualifying as an investment.
However, as I pointed out last year, there are other morals to be drawn here. One is the wisdom of living a long time. The other impressive factor is the swing produced by relatively small changes in the rate of compound."
As mentioned earlier in the previous post, Business Week announced “The Death Of Equities” in its August 1979 publication. At that time, people would rather invest their money in money markets, fast-food franchises or rare stamps and paintings. Stocks, apparently, were history.
Although a rare painting such as Mona Lisa by Leonardo de Vinci undeniable is a wonderful painting that ever created and should become a world heritage, it still is not a good investment if you look at the businessman point of view. This kind of rare painting does not create positive cash flow to the businessman. People might argue that this painting is found only one in the world and its price will eventually go up. This mentality is no less differ from the one who promotes real estate investment where they always proclaim “Location is the rarity and no substitute for it.” True, New York exists only one place in the world and its location could not be replaced by any other cities. But people tend to forget maintenance works and its related expenses such as insurance, maintenance charges and storage fee. To keep the painting in well manner, lots of effort need to place on it. The painting might priced at $ 100 millions during SOTHEBYS bidding session and the price seems enormous. But, as mentioned by Warren Buffett, if you invest 4,000 ecus ($ 20,000) as what Francis I of France did in 1540 and the investment brought you 6% after-tax annual return, the investment you made would worth $ 1 quadrillion ( $ 1,000,000,000,000,000). How many times 1 quadrillion is for 100 million? That is 10 million times!! (With $ 1 quadrillion, you can distribute evenly to every residents of the United States of America roughly $ 3.3 million!! That’s the state where everyone in USA becomes millionaire!!).
By knowing this fact, will you still consider a rare painting, stamp is a good investment?
Friday, February 17, 2006
Kim Chi (김치)
Reports has indicated that kimchi, Korea’s national fermented dish can be used in treating bird flu effectively. Followed up by that, LG electronics will market air conditioners coated with kimchi substances. Left shows actress Lee Young-ae, a LG model, taking a look at the new air conditioner.
Reports indicate that kimchi can cure birds infected with Bird Flu. In year 2003, few Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) cases reported in Korea while at the same time, SARS widespread in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore..etc. To know more, click here.
Reports indicate that kimchi can cure birds infected with Bird Flu. In year 2003, few Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) cases reported in Korea while at the same time, SARS widespread in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore..etc. To know more, click here.
Poor Child, Rich Child
There is a joy for parents when they get a new born baby. While it is joyful to see their baby, parents always forget financial planning for their child. Instead of preparing nest eggs for their child education fund, they buy lots of stuffs which is last short life. There can be fancy clothes, toys..etc which do not last long since the growing baby grows faster than their parents expect. Of course buying those necessities such as clothes and providing educational stuffs to their child is a responsibility of the parents, the parents should have a thought of always invest for their children future as well.
Parents who are wise enough to invest for their children future would ease a lot of hindrance that might be faced by their children in their adulthood. Their children would not worry for their education fund. If they do not intend to further their studies, they could use that fund to invest or staring a new business. They are not force to “make money from the market”, in which the people under this group often failed in their investment. They can be patience to wait until the market gives them a bargain hunting opportunity. That’s the essence of Value Investing.
The investment on behalf for their children should be starts as early as when the baby get born. This will save a lot of effort and money that need to pour in. The secret recipe behind this wonderful effect is COMPOUNDING EFFECT. Time is always equivalent to money. To fully appreciate the compounding effect, have a look at the table shown:
By starting as early as age of 19, B needs only pouring his money for consecutive 7 years and need not pouring more capital after age of 26. At the same time. A only starts his investment at age 26 and consistently pouring his money until age of 65. that’s 40 years effort compared to B who only 7 years effort. By assuming same amount they pouring in every year, that’s $ 2,000 and the return rate is 10% per annum, the end result would be shocking. The net earnings of B is more than A although A put more money and longer investment period. The only one thing that B sacrifices is he starts his investment 7 years earlier than A. That means, he might lose the opportunity to buy fancy watches, partying in high class club, buying expensive tech gadgets and so forth in his early adulthood. But, his sacrifice bears fruit after age of 26 and last for another 40 years. That means, he could just simply spending out extra $2,000 every year for another 40 years that A dare not do it if he wants to have similar amount that B gets at the age of 65.
By knowing this fact, what’s your choice for your beloved children? I believe as the parents who care for their children, the answer is already in your mind. The only consideration is to choose the CORRECT investment vehicle to do the job for your children.
Parents who are wise enough to invest for their children future would ease a lot of hindrance that might be faced by their children in their adulthood. Their children would not worry for their education fund. If they do not intend to further their studies, they could use that fund to invest or staring a new business. They are not force to “make money from the market”, in which the people under this group often failed in their investment. They can be patience to wait until the market gives them a bargain hunting opportunity. That’s the essence of Value Investing.
The investment on behalf for their children should be starts as early as when the baby get born. This will save a lot of effort and money that need to pour in. The secret recipe behind this wonderful effect is COMPOUNDING EFFECT. Time is always equivalent to money. To fully appreciate the compounding effect, have a look at the table shown:
By starting as early as age of 19, B needs only pouring his money for consecutive 7 years and need not pouring more capital after age of 26. At the same time. A only starts his investment at age 26 and consistently pouring his money until age of 65. that’s 40 years effort compared to B who only 7 years effort. By assuming same amount they pouring in every year, that’s $ 2,000 and the return rate is 10% per annum, the end result would be shocking. The net earnings of B is more than A although A put more money and longer investment period. The only one thing that B sacrifices is he starts his investment 7 years earlier than A. That means, he might lose the opportunity to buy fancy watches, partying in high class club, buying expensive tech gadgets and so forth in his early adulthood. But, his sacrifice bears fruit after age of 26 and last for another 40 years. That means, he could just simply spending out extra $2,000 every year for another 40 years that A dare not do it if he wants to have similar amount that B gets at the age of 65.
By knowing this fact, what’s your choice for your beloved children? I believe as the parents who care for their children, the answer is already in your mind. The only consideration is to choose the CORRECT investment vehicle to do the job for your children.
Thursday, February 16, 2006
Feng Shui (风水)
Feng Shui (风水) is the ancient Chinese practice of placement and arrangement in attempt to achieve harmony with the environment. As its Chinese characters stated “Wind and Water”, it believes that wind and water surrounding could affect one’s fortune. While the placement and arrangement of one place or stuffs could affect one’s feeling and consequently his fortune, there is a logical and scientific reasoning behind it. Take an example, if your house is facing directly to the main road, residents of the house would not stay calmly. This is because they feel unsecured and worried whether the car might accidentally crash into their house. The result, their mental would not in the peace and calm state and this could lead to the unwanted “luck” to them.
Feng Shui is the knowledge passed by the intelligent people generations by generations and its value could not be undermined. The problem in this era is, there are too many people under coat of Feng Shui and proclaim themselves as a Feng Shui practitioner to help people. But in reality, they act more like sales people. When the problem could be solve simply by placing something inexpensive, they would suggest their client to buy from them, the stuffs that could solve their problem. The suggested stuffs normally would not cost cheap. At the same time, the more technical terms they are using, they seem more professional. Why? This is because for the ordinary people, the more you talk that they do not understand, the more respect you will gain from them. And again, the consulting fee is not inexpensive as well. The most successful Feng Shui Master is no longer the master stay in the deeper part of the mountain nowadays but they will appear in your television screen. Their show is more like a talk show. They act more like an actress rather than a practitioner of Feng Shui. They become celebrities of the mass media. The most dazzling part as the Feng Shui practitioners is, no matter what they say to their client, be it right or wrong, they would not be sued by their client. Such phenomenon is similar in the Securities industry. As a securities analyst, the recommendation you make to your client, whether it is “Buy”, “Hold” or “Sell”, the loss incurred by your client is none of your responsibility. Such system does not create a responsibility among analyst who makes recommendation and they do not have any incentive to protect their client interest. Thus, the most popular recommendation they make is “Buy and Hold” and seldom “Sell”. The reason is simple, if they do not recommend “Buy and Hold”, where are their interested parties, such as investment bankers, fund managers’ management fee, trustee fee, consulting fee…etc come from? The picture is very clear here: the interest of the people who entrusted their hard-earned money to the funds is not their interest. Their interest lies on those fees. There is no wonder why Amazon could be valued at $400 per share during the dot com mania while at the same time the company still struggling to make profit from the new start-up.
Feng Shui is the knowledge passed by the intelligent people generations by generations and its value could not be undermined. The problem in this era is, there are too many people under coat of Feng Shui and proclaim themselves as a Feng Shui practitioner to help people. But in reality, they act more like sales people. When the problem could be solve simply by placing something inexpensive, they would suggest their client to buy from them, the stuffs that could solve their problem. The suggested stuffs normally would not cost cheap. At the same time, the more technical terms they are using, they seem more professional. Why? This is because for the ordinary people, the more you talk that they do not understand, the more respect you will gain from them. And again, the consulting fee is not inexpensive as well. The most successful Feng Shui Master is no longer the master stay in the deeper part of the mountain nowadays but they will appear in your television screen. Their show is more like a talk show. They act more like an actress rather than a practitioner of Feng Shui. They become celebrities of the mass media. The most dazzling part as the Feng Shui practitioners is, no matter what they say to their client, be it right or wrong, they would not be sued by their client. Such phenomenon is similar in the Securities industry. As a securities analyst, the recommendation you make to your client, whether it is “Buy”, “Hold” or “Sell”, the loss incurred by your client is none of your responsibility. Such system does not create a responsibility among analyst who makes recommendation and they do not have any incentive to protect their client interest. Thus, the most popular recommendation they make is “Buy and Hold” and seldom “Sell”. The reason is simple, if they do not recommend “Buy and Hold”, where are their interested parties, such as investment bankers, fund managers’ management fee, trustee fee, consulting fee…etc come from? The picture is very clear here: the interest of the people who entrusted their hard-earned money to the funds is not their interest. Their interest lies on those fees. There is no wonder why Amazon could be valued at $400 per share during the dot com mania while at the same time the company still struggling to make profit from the new start-up.
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
Dow 36000, Oil $300, Gold $3000…..
There are too many con men out of field waiting for the innocent yet naïve people, to suck out their hard-earned money. No matter it is in the stock market, real estate, commodities market and so forth.
History always tells us something. People who deny history would eventually lose out all. In 1999, when the euphoria of the stock came to the climax, two men, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett wrote a book titled “Dow 36000”. They predicted that Dow Jones Industrial Index will reach at 36000 anytime soon and latest in year 2005. If you think this two gentlemen are an ordinary man, you are totally wrong. Glassman, an investing columnist for the Washington Post, and Hassett, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who used to be an economist at the Federal Reserve. Because of their background and title, many people fall into the prey that “they are intelligent people, what they say makes sense”. So, they pour their money into the stock market when the market was at its peak. The result, they lost US$8 trillion (YES! It’s US$8,000,000,000,000 !!!) With this amount, you can buy 3,200 Petronas Twin Tower in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. (used to be the world’s tallest building in the world)
Stepping into the beginning of 21st century, similar phenomenon will appear. From time to time, someone will come out and shout to you:” Oil will reach to $300 per barrel!”, “Gold will hit $3000 per ounce!”. When the euphoria shift to commodities market, you will notice that some magazines will announce “The Death of Equities” and someone will author the book titled “Dows 360”. When this moment arrives, grab as many as you can from the stock market. Of course, choose only “good” stock.
What is a bubble? You won't know about it until it's already happened...and then it's too late,,,
Creative Accounting is Expensive
How do companies cooking their book in order to see a “soaring reported earnings”? There are hundred ways of doing it, among other are:
1) Acquiring other companies in an effort to boost their balance sheet. Whether the acquired companies will bring synergistic effort to the company or not and offered price is not the concern of the management. After all, the acquired money is taken out from the shareholders’ pocket, not theirs.
2) Paying lawyers and bankers for their services as “financial engineers”. While the role of the lawyers is to protect the interest of the company for the legal part, acting as a “financial engineers” sound strength.
3) Awarding themselves stock option by the corporate manager and buying back outstanding shares in the market, in order to offset the dilution of earnings per share (EPS) created by the options. The pricing of the share buy back is not the issue. Once again, the money is still comes out from the shareholders’ pocket, not theirs. The management would not lose out the game since it is an “option”, that means they have the right to exercise the right to buy the option awarded to them. If the market price of the stock is below their exercise price, they can just forget about the option and still enjoying the benefits, such as huge bonus and incentives. If the stock’s market price is above their exercise price, they got the premium. Do not forget that, there is also hundred ways to boost up the market price by the interested parties.
1) Acquiring other companies in an effort to boost their balance sheet. Whether the acquired companies will bring synergistic effort to the company or not and offered price is not the concern of the management. After all, the acquired money is taken out from the shareholders’ pocket, not theirs.
2) Paying lawyers and bankers for their services as “financial engineers”. While the role of the lawyers is to protect the interest of the company for the legal part, acting as a “financial engineers” sound strength.
3) Awarding themselves stock option by the corporate manager and buying back outstanding shares in the market, in order to offset the dilution of earnings per share (EPS) created by the options. The pricing of the share buy back is not the issue. Once again, the money is still comes out from the shareholders’ pocket, not theirs. The management would not lose out the game since it is an “option”, that means they have the right to exercise the right to buy the option awarded to them. If the market price of the stock is below their exercise price, they can just forget about the option and still enjoying the benefits, such as huge bonus and incentives. If the stock’s market price is above their exercise price, they got the premium. Do not forget that, there is also hundred ways to boost up the market price by the interested parties.
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Choose the correct information
In the era where we are bombarded with ton of information, carefully choose the correct information is crucial. After all, bits and bytes of information can be more dangerous than ignorance.
Once upon a time, when the information is hardly obtained by an ordinary people like us, we treat the information we obtained like precious metal. We absorbed what ever we could in the hope that we become more knowledgeable. While this is a correct attitude for the improvement of humanity, this only applied to the society where the information is scarce. When the situation changes, where we could easily obtain whatever information that we wish as long as we connected through the internet, choosing the correct information becomes crucial. This phenomenon is similar to the society who lacked of food, and making them no choice to choose what the food they wish to put inside their stomach.
Very often, by absorbing the misleading information, either consciously or unconsciously would only bring the devastating result to us. Take the example, whenever a company announces its profit soaring in a particular quarter, do not be so excited and thrush your money into it. The reported earnings lie to its word “reported” and whether it is “real” earnings, only god knows. Simply by Creative Accounting, the management and its related interested parties could manipulate the company account and show the public a “soaring reported earnings”. There are too many ways for the manipulation, by cooking the book, by selling off the assets to boost one-time earning, by dealing business among related companies are among few examples of the manipulation. The only way to be a successful investor lies to your passion and your home work – no short cut.
Over the years, I found out that the asian investors are the lambs that become the prey of the fox of financial industry. The information that is out of date and no longer applied in the western world could be sold in asian countries. Take an example, after 97/98 Asian Financial Crisis, many asian investors isolate themselves from the stock market. Because of the cash piling up, they need to find a way to invest their cash pile. Where the market would always supply what demand needed, the financial industry came out with the “Capital Guarantee Fund”. These hungered investors pouring their hard-earned money into the funds. Other examples like “Buy and hold”, “The price of real estate is always appreciate in the long term” and “Blue Chips counters is a safe haven for the investor”. There are too many examples that show that people without a proper knowledge tend to become the prey. While ignorance people have no choice but become a sacrifice, the most pitiful people are the one who obtain misleading information and yet they feel they got the correct information.
Monday, February 13, 2006
Loan to people over the net
What are the consequences of giving out loan to the people over the net? Let’s see…click here.
Sunday, February 12, 2006
Accountability
“An account without accountability is just a number games, in which it serves other than none, entertainment purpose for you.”
Often, individual investors fall into the prey of their predators in Wall Street. While the parties who manage the company account with “Creative Accounting” should be blamed for the fraud, the investors should not be left from the responsibility for the fraud. In the world of hoping for short term quick profit from the stock market, there is only one way to fulfill the hope: by cooking the book. Thus, the parties found hundred ways to inflate the reported earnings of the company to fulfill the consensus estimate and thus jerking up the stock price. The manipulated price would not long last. Sooner or later, the factor that determines the price of the stock lays no other places but in its ability to create a value to the society. People tend to forget about this reality and hope for unrealistic continuous earnings growth.
In nature, there is a cycle: the day would be last with night; the last of winter would be followed by spring. So, in business. Businesses rise and fall, only businesses that create values could last longer than ordinary businesses. The success of the businesses would not bear fruit in quarters, but in years. Hoping for quick result would only bring disappointment to the investors and the hope is just merely a utopian hope, the hope that does not exist in the reality.
Labels:
Accountability,
Creative Accounting,
Utopia,
Wall Street
12 Emperors of Dynasty Qing XII (The Last Emperor)
12th Emperor: Xuāntǒng 宣統 (Pǔyí 溥儀) 1908 - 1911
He took a title of the Emperor of Dynasty Qing after the death of his uncle, Emperor, GuangXu at aged of three. But in fact, he never had a chance to rule the dynasty.
After XinHai Revolution in 1911 lead by Dr. Sun Yat-sen, PuYi retained his title and special treatment as a royal member.
From 1925 until 1932, he became a puppet ruler of Manchukuo where the state created by Japanese as a preparation for the later invasion to China.
His later part of life was pitiful. From an Emperor of dynasty which once upon a time was the strongest super power in the power, he became a normal civilian. After World War II, he was captured by Soviet Red Army and he was put in the prison. After returning back to China where the nation was in Mao's ruling, he once again resided in a reeducation camp for 10 years. He died in 1967 of cancer and it marked the end of monarchy system started nearly 4000 years ago.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
He took a title of the Emperor of Dynasty Qing after the death of his uncle, Emperor, GuangXu at aged of three. But in fact, he never had a chance to rule the dynasty.
After XinHai Revolution in 1911 lead by Dr. Sun Yat-sen, PuYi retained his title and special treatment as a royal member.
From 1925 until 1932, he became a puppet ruler of Manchukuo where the state created by Japanese as a preparation for the later invasion to China.
His later part of life was pitiful. From an Emperor of dynasty which once upon a time was the strongest super power in the power, he became a normal civilian. After World War II, he was captured by Soviet Red Army and he was put in the prison. After returning back to China where the nation was in Mao's ruling, he once again resided in a reeducation camp for 10 years. He died in 1967 of cancer and it marked the end of monarchy system started nearly 4000 years ago.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
12 Emperors of Dynasty Qing XI
12th Emperor: Guāngxù 光緒 (Dézōng 德宗) 1875 - 1908
Although his official ruling as an emperor of Dynasty Qing lasted for 33 years, but the man who is the real ruler was Empress Dowager Cixi. As a so called ruler, GuangXu actually was a pity man, he just a puppet ruler controlled by CiXi.
He was an ambitious ruler. In June 1898, he began a reform though only short life, which later known as "Hundred Days' Reform". His reform was an idea from Meiji Restoration, Japan which transformed Japan from a Samurai country to one of the influential nation that could stand aside with other powers such as Britain, France, Austria during late 19th century. However, his ambition did not materialized because of the interference from CiXi who afraid the reform would challenged her power.
He also became a ruler who gave up his palace, Forbidden City and ran away to Xi'an together with CiXi when Eight-Nation Alliance (八國聯軍) marched into the city in 1901. The alliance consists of United Kingdom, France, Austria-Hungary, Italy, Russia, Germany, United States and Japan.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
Although his official ruling as an emperor of Dynasty Qing lasted for 33 years, but the man who is the real ruler was Empress Dowager Cixi. As a so called ruler, GuangXu actually was a pity man, he just a puppet ruler controlled by CiXi.
He was an ambitious ruler. In June 1898, he began a reform though only short life, which later known as "Hundred Days' Reform". His reform was an idea from Meiji Restoration, Japan which transformed Japan from a Samurai country to one of the influential nation that could stand aside with other powers such as Britain, France, Austria during late 19th century. However, his ambition did not materialized because of the interference from CiXi who afraid the reform would challenged her power.
He also became a ruler who gave up his palace, Forbidden City and ran away to Xi'an together with CiXi when Eight-Nation Alliance (八國聯軍) marched into the city in 1901. The alliance consists of United Kingdom, France, Austria-Hungary, Italy, Russia, Germany, United States and Japan.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
Saturday, February 11, 2006
12 Emperors of Dynasty Qing X
10th Emperor: Tóngzhì 同治(Mùzōng 穆宗) 1861 - 1875
He became an emperor of Qing at age of five when his father, XianFeng passed away. Although his title was an emperor of Qing, but the person who really ruled the empire was his mother, Empress Dowager Cixi 慈禧太后. The traditional Chinese political phrase "attending audiences behind a drawn curtain" (垂簾聽政), which had already been used earlier in Chinese history, was used to describe Cixi's rule through her son the Tongzhi Emperor. This was due to the fact that ladies could not interfere with the governmental ruling during Dynasty Qing.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
Labels:
Empress Dowager Cixi,
Muzong,
Qing Dynasty,
Tongzhi
12 Emperors of Dynasty Qing IX
9th Emperor: Xiánfēng 咸豐(Wénzōng 文宗) 1850 - 1861
During his ruling, he could not do much since the imperialist from European countries marched into the old, illed China. On October 18, 1860 (2nd Opium War), the Imperial Summer Palace (圆明园)where the royal family of Qing devoted millions of silver to build burnt by the British and French army. It took whole 3 days to burn the entire garden.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
During his ruling, he could not do much since the imperialist from European countries marched into the old, illed China. On October 18, 1860 (2nd Opium War), the Imperial Summer Palace (圆明园)where the royal family of Qing devoted millions of silver to build burnt by the British and French army. It took whole 3 days to burn the entire garden.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
Labels:
Imperial Summer Palace,
Opium War,
Qing Dynasty,
Wenzong,
Xianfeng
Friday, February 10, 2006
Myth of ex-Fed Chairman
If you think Mr. Alan Greenspan has "Invisible Hands" to safeguard the economics, think again. As a role of Fed chairman, he should be act more like an economist, but he seem is more like a political animal. By printing more paper currency during his 18 years administration, he seems like no other solution othen than this. Find out more about his myth, click here.
Labels:
Alan Greenspan,
Fed,
Federal Reserve,
Invisible Hands
Thursday, February 09, 2006
12 Emperors of Dynasty Qing VIII
8th Emperor: Dàoguāng 道光 (Xuānzōng 宣宗) 1820 - 1850
During his ruling, opium from British India merchants already became widespread nationwide. During his time, 30,000 boxes opium traded in China compared to his grand father, Yong Zheng's ruling where only 200 boxes opium were allowed for trading.
Knowing opium could destroy the whole nation, he appointed Lin Zexu to fight for the opium trading in China by British India merchants. But due to the inferior technology and military compared to his European counterpart, China lost his 1st Opium War which resulted the Treaty of Nanking in August 1842 and witnessed the surrender of Hong Kong to British. This marked the 1st territory lost in the history of Dynasty Qing to his enemy.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
Labels:
Daoguang,
Lin Zexu,
Opium War,
Qing Dynasty,
Treaty of Nanking,
Xuanzong,
Yong Zheng
12 Emperors of Dynasty Qing VII
7th Emperor: Jiāqìng 嘉慶 (Rénzōng 仁宗) 1796 - 1820
He tried to bring back "The Prosperous Era" during his ruling but he failed. This is due to internal disorders such as a large scale "White Lotus Rebellion" and an empty treasury left over by his father. Besides this, he was also facing the outflow of silver to British India for the opium trade that caused the decline of the Empire.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
Labels:
Emperor Jia Qing,
Opium,
Renzong,
White Lotus Rebellion
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
12 Emperors of Dynasty Qing VI
6th Emperor: Qiánlóng 乾隆 (Gāozōng 高宗) 1735 - 1796
With the vast nation reserve from his father, QianLong managed to establish many grand projects. The day to day governance of the country was left in the hands of Heshen whilst Qianlong himself indulged on everyday luxuries and his favourite pastime of hunting.
When the outside world countries such as England, France, Russia, Austria and even previously a nation looked down by Qing -- Japan emerged as a power caused by Industrial Revolution. At the same time, a whole nation of Qing still enjoying "The Prosperous Era" (GDP of Qing that time is 60% of the world GDP), never thinking of the improvement of the nation , and not bothering the situation outside the nation. For them, Qing is the strongest nation in the world -- they are right that time, but that also marked the beginning of the fall of the superpower.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
12 Emperors of Dynasty Qing V
5th Emperor: Yōngzhèng 雍正(Shìzōng 世宗) 1722 - 1735
After his father ruling for 61 years, he left many troubles unsolved to his son. At that time, the nation facing corruption problem nationwide even in the government. Someone can buy the government post -- from the post as small as a district officer to the post as big as a member of the cabinet, as long as you can pay out the money requested, you would be rewarded with the post. Yongzheng with his unwelcomed actions by those corrupted officers managed to minimized the problem and save a lot for the Nation Reserve. This lead to the Prosperous Era enjoyed by his son, QianLong later on.
"People who deny history do not have his story."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)